Flatten the Curve

I am convinced we did the opposite of what we intended to do. When officials started calling for a need to shut down the economy in order to #SlowTheSpread, oh and to #FlattenTheCurve (I want to throw up as I say these two phrases), they were of the belief that this virus was very deadly, perhaps even double digits deadly. That is not the case.

For anyone who was actually looking at the numbers, I was constantly saying to my co-workers, we have no idea of the number of actual cases, only reported cases. Thus back to basic math, when the denominator gets larger (i.e more cases) then the ratio gets smaller. In summary: Deaths/Cases = Death Rate. And yet, our leaders and the esteemed Dr. can do no wrong Fauci, was convinced we would see 1-2 million dead. Nope, that was revised down to 150-250k dead and of course that was with continuing social distancing. Then the estimates were further reduced to <100k with by August with social distancing. As of now, we are on target to see the number of deaths well within the tolerance range of the flu season. Yup. The only difference is we put ourselves into an economic recession, and if we do not open soon, a depression.

By sending everyone home and into tight quarters with other members of their family, not to mention members who might be more susceptible to this virus, we actually caused the spike to occur sharper and faster. Versus, if we would have quarantined the elderly and sick, then over the next 2-4 weeks, herd immunity would have occurred, creating a ring of protection around the vulnerable. But now the herd is not protected near the levels they should, thus the risk to the vulnerable will remain elevated for longer.

Forgive my crude drawing...

What started as a legitimate scare, has turned into an opportunity by lefties to grab more control, centralize more power, demand you to surrender your constitutional liberties, and finally find a way to ensure Trumps loss at the ballot in November.

Yet, as more antibody tests are released, the facts become clear.... Just as I guessed, this virus is significantly more contagious than the flu, many more Americans have it than originally thought and thus the death rate is plummeting. Dr Scott Atlas at Stanford is speaking similar things, along with a number of other professionals in this space.

And now we have an economy that is in crisis, many business are shut down, and to make matters worse, the sector that is leading this economic crisis is the health care sector. That is right, all elective surgeries, cancelled, doctors offices closed. Massive layoffs have begun, and why, well we have to stop the spread and flatten the curve. Facepalm.

So in summary, you are more likely to get this virus than the flu, but less likely to die from it than the flu. The caveat is COVID-19 is more dangerous to elderly and those with preexisting conditions. But by and large when we look at the full swath of the American people, my summary statement stands. If you are vulnerable, stay at home and be safe, everyone else, get back to work, wash your hands and come back to sanity.

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